Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Sigh.

There are certain things I’d hoped never to say. Chiefest among them, perhaps, is this: the Blue Jays should trade Roy Halladay.

And yet, it’s true. It turns my stomach, but it’s true. Doc has meant more to this team and its fans over the past decade than I can adequately explain. He’s been its alpha and omega - consummate professional, perennial Cy Young candidate, the still-beating heart of a listless, moribund franchise. Few things would make me happier than seeing him sign a monster extension that would keep him in Toronto for the rest of his career.

But, Doc’s ticket out of town seems to have already been punched. Trade or no trade, JP has made comments suggesting that the Jays won’t be able to extend Halladay after his contract expires at the end of 2010. The Jays aren’t contending this year, nor will they next year, and with the Orioles promising to become last year’s Rays by 2012, the time has come to fold and reshuffle the deck.

Doc’s trade value will never be higher than it is right now. The team getting him will have him under control for one-and-a-half seasons, and two playoff runs. Extolling his virtues here would be preaching to the choir, so I’ll spare you the effulgence and simply ask you to think back on what C.C. did for the Brewers last year. If you want to talk about the transformative effect Halladay could have on a team’s playoff chances, I think Sabathia’s run with Milwaukee is the tip of the iceberg. Imagine the world-destroying power of a Hamels-Halladay, or Gallardo-Halladay, or (deep breath) Lincecum-Halladay duo in a playoff series. Any one of those pairings would hang with Koufax-Drysdale, Maddux-Glavine, or Spahn-Sain in the pantheon of fearsome one-twos. Having Doc for the playoffs this year as well as next drives his value way, way up. If he’s going to be moved, it should be before July 31.

Now: how to do it.

There are few teams with farm systems robust enough to take a run at Doc. I see the Red Sox, Rays, Rangers, Dodgers, Phillies, and Braves as the only ones who have the pieces. I’m ruling out the Red Sox and Rays immediately – there’s no way he’s traded within the division. The Rangers are borrowing money from the MLB this year, so I doubt they’d be able to take on his contract. That leaves the Dodgers, the Phillies, and the Braves. If Halladay goes, it’s essential that we get a starter that has ace potential and is under team control for several years coming back. The Braves have that in Tommy Hanson, but are unlikely to make the playoffs this year, with or without Doc, making them an unlikely partner. They’re off the list.

That leaves the Phillies and the Dodgers. The Phils are reportedly Doc’s most aggressive suitor, and have the parts to put together an attractive package. For me, though, it comes down to the pitching. The Phillies have Kyle Drabek, a highly-touted prospect who’s been tearing it up this year after missing time with Tommy John surgery. Drabek could be a front-of-the-rotation starter, it’s true. He’s cleaned up his delivery, and has come back from TJ as well as anyone could have expected. But, the fact remains, he’s twenty-one and he’s already blown his elbow out, and, according to Keith Law, has “make-up issues dating back to high school.” Pass.

That leaves the Dodgers. If I’m Ricciardi, I’m approaching them with two different packages. The first starts with Clayton Kershaw. The Jays need to get an ace back, and Kershaw’s that kind of special talent. He’s always had the stuff, as illustrated by a heater that touches 96 and a curveball that is, in the parlance of our times, straight filth. His mechanics are clean as a whistle. And this year, he’s putting it all together. I’m not going to regurgitate numbers here, but I urge you to check out Kershaw’s recent lines. The kid’s got the goods, and should be a prerequisite for any deal that sends Doc to LA. I’d also be looking for 1B James Loney and SS Devaris Gordon.

The second package, which is of the “major-reach-but-what-the-hell-can’t-hurt-to-ask” variety, starts with Vernon Wells. Just like I don’t need to tell you how good Doc is, I also don’t need to get into how badly Wells’ contract is going to hurt the Jays over the next few years. The Dodgers have the payroll to take on that contract. If they’d do it, you’d have to consider giving up Halladay for less than he’s really worth. In this scenario, I’d be asking for Matt Kemp and more. RHP James McDonald, SS Ivan DeJesus, and RHP Josh Lindblom are all intriguing prospects.

A trade sending Doc to the Dodgers would make sense for the both teams. LA has the young, controllable players Toronto needs to build a team that can compete in the AL East. Toronto has the player that can make the Dodgers a World Series winner, this year and next.

On a personal level, I just hope that, one way or another, this situation is resolved soon. The tension is killing me. You know that feeling you get when you pretty sure your significant other is about to break up with you, and every time they open their mouth you’re expecting a “we need to talk?” That’s how I’ve felt for, like, a week. Except that I can’t imagine ever loving a woman the way I love Roy Halladay.

Recommended reading:

Schopenhauer, On Suicide

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Yanks make it rain, drop $180 mil on Tex


So, this happened.

The other shoe has dropped on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, and it has fallen squarely on the big toe of the Toronto Blue Jays organization. And it's a giant, steel-toed boot. Not only has the return on Burnett’s departure been reduced to a third-round pick, but we also have to deal with Tex eighteen times next summer.

The A.J. and C.C. signings were one thing. A.J.’s injury history is, suffice to say, well documented. As is his propensity towards being a reckless headcase who wilts under pressure. In three years, he’ll be sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber or a padded cell (right arm, or fragile psyche – which will snap first?!). The Sabathia deal, I can see playing out one of two ways. Either he pitches well, opts out after three and flees to the left coast, or his ungodly workload from last year catches up to him and he lands on the DL, cold lamping like Jabba the Hutt (or Carl Pavano).

This Teixeira, though. He’s different. He has no significant injury history. His career OPS+ is 134. He’s hit at least 30 bombs each year since 2004. He actually walks almost as much as he strikes out. His careers OPS against the Jays pitching? 1.453. And he’s one of the best defensive one-baggers in the game, posting an 11.7 UZR last year. He’s only 27, and unlike chuckers like A.J., power-hitting first basemen tend to remain consistent through their mid-thirties. There’s no opt-out clause in the deal, either, which means, barring a trade, he’s in pinstripes for the next eight years.

All I have to say is…


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Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Happy trails, A.J.


For the realists among us, whether or not A.J. Burnett would re-up with Toronto was never really in question. His 18-10 season ensured that he’d be opting out of his deal with the Jays in pursuit of a monster payday.

His journey’s end could be drawing nigh. This morning, the New York Post reported that the Yankees are preparing to offer A.J. a five-year deal worth somewhere in the realm of $80 million. Though I suppose it’s possible that he could take a hometown discount to sign with Baltimore, it seems very likely that A.J.’s going to be rocking pinstripes in ’09. And while I don’t exactly relish the idea of having to face him five or six times a year, I’m glad it’s going to be the Yankees paying him, and not us.

Burnett’s been holding out for a five-year deal. The Jays don’t seem willing to offer more than three, which might actually be the single smartest move J.P. Ricciardi has made in his tenure with Toronto. Seriously.

Burnett is an indisputably tremendous talent. When he’s on, you can almost count on one hand the other pitchers who can hang with him.

He’s also an enormous injury risk. If you take a look at his injury history, an obvious pattern has developed over the past six years: when A.J. gets worked hard, A.J. breaks down. This is one instance where the numbers largely tell the tale. After having an excellent 2002, throwing 204.3 innings, he missed almost all of 2003 after having Tommy John surgery not a month into the season. He dealt with more elbow problems in 2004, tossing only 120 innings. He came back with a career year in 2005, throwing 209 innings, signed with Toronto, and then spent parts of the next two years on the DL, though pitching well when healthy. This past year, A.J. threw a whopping 221.3 innings, and more pitches (3638) than anyone not named Sabathia (3814). That’s about 450 more pitches than he’s ever thrown in one season. With his history in mind, can he really be counted on to have a productive 2010? 2011? How effective will he be in the latter half of his thirties?

Burnett and his agent insist that his injury-prone days are behind him. The difference between the Yankees and the Blue Jays is that the Yankees can afford to take their word for it. The Yanks are likely to sign C.C. Sabathia and A.J., and possibly Derek Lowe, as well. Inking two of the three would make the Yankees instant contenders, and would likely mean another fourth-or-worse place finish for Toronto. But, that’s just the kind of game the Yankees can play. They can afford to splash money around on bloated, overlong contracts that trade championships now for deadweight later. The Jays, if they’re ever to regain a position of relevance in the AL East, need to play it a bit more conservatively. That starts with knowing when to pursue your free agents, and when to let them walk in exchange for the draft picks that are going to help you make a run at the division title five years down the road, when the Yankees are suffocating under the weight of a dead-armed Burnett and an increasingly rotund Sabathia. The money A.J.’s departure frees up can be used to address more pressing needs, like signing a big bat or a real shortstop, or extending Halladay.

Good luck in New York, Allan James. You were a prick, but a prick with a 97+ MPH heater and a hammer curve. And you’ll be missed. Just not “5/80” missed. Have fun with that New York media.

Recommended reading:
A.J. Burnett statistics @ Baseball Reference
Valuing A.J. Burnett @ Sabernomics

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Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Beeston relives glory years, wishes he could rock that sweater-vest


The Toronto Star is reporting that the Jays are bringing back Paul Beeston as their interim Prez and CEO. Not what I would call a surprising development. Tao of Stieb has already done a fine job of covering the story, but failed to include the above photo of Beeston and LaSorda at a costume party, dressed as Tom Cruise in "Risky Business" and a very old maraschino cherry, respectively.

In a related story, Candido "Candy" Maldonado has been signed to a one-year, incentive-laden deal, and will be used primarily at DH.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Why we must sign Manny

Last night, in Game One of the Cubs/Dodgers NLDS, Manny Ramirez went two-for-four with a walk and his twenty-fifth post-season home run. It came in the seventh inning, off a Sean Marshall curveball. It wasn’t even a bad pitch. Marshall kept it low, didn’t hang it. It had bite, nice twelve-to-six movement. But Manny reached down and with an awkward, all-hands swing launched it into the centre field bleachers. Coming out of Marshall’s hand, it didn’t look like a home run ball. But then, that’s just Manuel Aristides (Onelcida) Ramirez being Manuel Aristides (Onelcida) Ramirez.

Blue Jays faithful, these are exciting times. Every so often, we are confronted by an opportunity that can only be described as sublime: so overwhelmingly grand in its implications that it inspires equal parts awe and fear.

Manny Ramirez is about to become a free agent.

Do you understand what this means? One thing:

The Toronto Blue Jays must acquire Manny Ramirez.

The must, because they can’t afford not to. Manny is unquestionably one of the five, maybe even three, best hitters in the game today, and will one day be a first-ballot Hall of Famer in the conversation for greatest hitter of all-time. The Blue Jays haven’t had a truly frightening presence in the order since Carlos Delgado. Vernon Wells is a great hitter, but when a middle reliever wakes with a start, face slick with cold sweat, odds are he wasn’t dreaming about Number 10 – he was watching Manny rip his cutter inside over the left field wall.

Being that baseball is one of life’s few arenas in which numbers rarely lie, I’m going to drop some stats on you to prove my point. Since his first game in Dodger blue, Manny has been the best hitter in the baseball, posting a line of .396/.489/.743 with 17 HRs in 187 ABs. That’s more home runs than any Blue Jay besides Vernon Wells hit all season. His arrival in Los Angeles redefined the landscape of the NL West, and you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who’d tell you he’s not the reason the Dodgers found their way to the post-season.

As if his preternatural second-half numbers weren’t enough, there are ancillary benefits to having Manny Ramirez on your team that go beyond his personal performance. Dropping Manny into the heart of an order causes a ripple effect: his presence ameliorates those around him. Now, I realize that the notion of hitting with protection is not what you'd call groundbreaking, but consider the following. Before Manny joined the Dodgers, outfielder Andre Ethier was hitting .274/.338/.442 with 11 HRs in 351 ABs. Since then? .368/.448/.649 with nine jacks in 174 ABs – just fewer than half of his previous at-bats. And when he’s batting immediately in front of Manny? .425/.505/.688 with three bombs over 80 ABs. When Jeff Kent hit in front of Manny during a thirteen-game stretch between August 7 and 20, his slash stats read .481/.518/.635. On September 15, Juan Pierre went three-for-five and hit his only home run of the season. He was batting second, with Manny in the three-spot.

Last night, Canadian boy Russell Martin, saw a ton of very hittable pitches while batting ahead of Ramirez, flying out on changeups and fastballs that were coming right down the pipe. In the seventh, he connected for a solo shot on a meatball from Jason Marquis. Question is: would he have seen those kinds of pitches if Manny weren’t in the on-deck circle?

Now, signing Manny will be expensive, there’s no question about that. But with a few contracts coming off the books, we’re going to have some degree of flexibility. Most significantly, Burnett will walk (if you think this rumoured 30 million dollar extension is going to keep him a Jays uniform, you haven’t really thought about it), freeing up 11+ million per season. And if you take a look at the revenue Manny’s brought to LA in the form of merchandise and ticket sales, I suspect Ted Rogers could be convinced to open up his pocket book.

Would inking Ramirez to a huge deal (say, 4/85) be risky? Sure. He could get hurt, though slotting him into a full-time DH role lessens the likelihood of a serious injury. His behaviour could be problem, but there, we know what we’re getting into. Manny Ramirez is a clown. A degenerate manchild incapable of acting like an adult outside of the batters’ box. We know this. We can deal with this. And every time he rips a two-run double or parks a four-hundred-and-fifteen-footer, we’ll be on our feet, cheering his name and thinking, “I’m so fucking glad he plays ball in Toronto.”

Also of interest to the 2008 Jays: with runners in scoring position, Manny hit .355/.505/.623. With seven home runs.

We must sign Manny Ramirez. We must give him whatever he wants – money, his own personal clubhouse, one million hot dogs. Whatever. We must sign Manny Ramirez.

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Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Christmas shopping, part one

From rotoworld:

"Josh Hamilton-OF-Reds Dec. 3 - 10:24 pm et

The Reds are listening to offers for Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarnacion. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick thinks the Reds will make a play for Hamilton, but that Sean Marshall won't be enough to get a deal done. Rich Hill would, but the Cubs shouldn't part with him for less than a sure thing. Encarnacion would make sense for the Giants, Twins and Phillies, among others.

Source: ESPN.com"

The Jays are more than a decent-hitting shortstop away from a playoff berth. They're also lacking an everyday left fielder, and unlike at short, there are some very productive, very attainable players available that could fill the hole. Josh Hamilton of the Reds is one of those players. He's young (26), with tons of upside (drafted first overall back in 1999), could be controlled in the long term for relatively cheaply, and would only cost us a reliable young arm to obtain. The biggest question with Hamilton is his health - he had two stints on the DL this season (although one of them was for gastroenteritis, which shouldn't be cause for future concern). That's why we've signed Matt Stairs, who could take over if Hamilton gets hurt, to a one-year deal. This would also allow us to non-tender Reed Johnson, our primary left fielder going into 2008, freeing up around three million for (hopefully) other off-season moves.

Why give up a young pitcher for Hamilton when we already have Reed? Here’s why:

In 298 at-bats last season, Hamilton had a .922 OPS with 19 HRs. Reed put up an OPS of .625 and 2 bombs in only 23 fewer ABs. That's an improvement of almost three hundred points of OPS for a minor defensive downgrade. Moreover, Hamilton is a lefty bat in a line-up drunk on righties, with an OPS of 1.028 against right-handed pitchers. Josh isn't what you would call a threat to steal, but since when did the Jays play small ball?

True, Reed was injured for much of 2007. But even his 2006 numbers, far and away his best, can’t step to Hamilton’s from last year. The only meaningful category that 2006 Reed topped 2007 Hamilton in was OBP (.390 vs. .368). Johnson is far from a lock to put up those kinds of numbers again, and considering that the only other time in his career he’s even approached them was in 2001 with the AA Tennessee Smokies, I’m comfortable proclaiming his breakout year a fluke that he won’t be able to replicate.

If the Jays have any hope of curing their offensive woes, they need a solid leadoff hitter. Rios and Wells both spent time batting first in 2007, but both need to be in the heart of the order. Hill hit there, as well, but went 0-for-18 when leading off, and is more suited to batting seventh or eighth. Hamilton, on the other hand, logged many of his 2007 ABs (107 of 298) from the one-hole, where he complemented an OPS of 1.022, with 7 HRs. By trading for Hamilton, JP could add a legitimate leadoff guy and a regular left fielder for a fraction of what it would cost to re-sign the inferior Reed Johnson. And with rumours of trades involving Rios and Lind floating around, adding some outfield depth might soon become entirely necessary.

Because of his checkered past and injuries, we wouldn’t be paying through the nose for Hamilton, either. He could likely be had for Shawn Marcum, who would put up consistent numbers and log a ton of innings in the AL Central.

With the Bosox on the cusp of acquiring the best pitcher in baseball, the Rays showing signs of life, and the Yankees sure to improve before April, the AL's toughest division is about to get tougher. The Jays need to make moves to keep pace. This could be the first one.