Happy trails, A.J.

For the realists among us, whether or not A.J. Burnett would re-up with Toronto was never really in question. His 18-10 season ensured that he’d be opting out of his deal with the Jays in pursuit of a monster payday.

His journey’s end could be drawing nigh. This morning, the New York Post reported that the Yankees are preparing to offer A.J. a five-year deal worth somewhere in the realm of $80 million. Though I suppose it’s possible that he could take a hometown discount to sign with Baltimore, it seems very likely that A.J.’s going to be rocking pinstripes in ’09. And while I don’t exactly relish the idea of having to face him five or six times a year, I’m glad it’s going to be the Yankees paying him, and not us.

Burnett’s been holding out for a five-year deal. The Jays don’t seem willing to offer more than three, which might actually be the single smartest move J.P. Ricciardi has made in his tenure with Toronto. Seriously.

Burnett is an indisputably tremendous talent. When he’s on, you can almost count on one hand the other pitchers who can hang with him.

He’s also an enormous injury risk. If you take a look at his injury history, an obvious pattern has developed over the past six years: when A.J. gets worked hard, A.J. breaks down. This is one instance where the numbers largely tell the tale. After having an excellent 2002, throwing 204.3 innings, he missed almost all of 2003 after having Tommy John surgery not a month into the season. He dealt with more elbow problems in 2004, tossing only 120 innings. He came back with a career year in 2005, throwing 209 innings, signed with Toronto, and then spent parts of the next two years on the DL, though pitching well when healthy. This past year, A.J. threw a whopping 221.3 innings, and more pitches (3638) than anyone not named Sabathia (3814). That’s about 450 more pitches than he’s ever thrown in one season. With his history in mind, can he really be counted on to have a productive 2010? 2011? How effective will he be in the latter half of his thirties?

Burnett and his agent insist that his injury-prone days are behind him. The difference between the Yankees and the Blue Jays is that the Yankees can afford to take their word for it. The Yanks are likely to sign C.C. Sabathia and A.J., and possibly Derek Lowe, as well. Inking two of the three would make the Yankees instant contenders, and would likely mean another fourth-or-worse place finish for Toronto. But, that’s just the kind of game the Yankees can play. They can afford to splash money around on bloated, overlong contracts that trade championships now for deadweight later. The Jays, if they’re ever to regain a position of relevance in the AL East, need to play it a bit more conservatively. That starts with knowing when to pursue your free agents, and when to let them walk in exchange for the draft picks that are going to help you make a run at the division title five years down the road, when the Yankees are suffocating under the weight of a dead-armed Burnett and an increasingly rotund Sabathia. The money A.J.’s departure frees up can be used to address more pressing needs, like signing a big bat or a real shortstop, or extending Halladay.

Good luck in New York, Allan James. You were a prick, but a prick with a 97+ MPH heater and a hammer curve. And you’ll be missed. Just not “5/80” missed. Have fun with that New York media.

Recommended reading:
A.J. Burnett statistics @ Baseball Reference
Valuing A.J. Burnett @ Sabernomics