Christmas shopping, part one

From rotoworld:

"Josh Hamilton-OF-Reds Dec. 3 - 10:24 pm et

The Reds are listening to offers for Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarnacion. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick thinks the Reds will make a play for Hamilton, but that Sean Marshall won't be enough to get a deal done. Rich Hill would, but the Cubs shouldn't part with him for less than a sure thing. Encarnacion would make sense for the Giants, Twins and Phillies, among others.

Source: ESPN.com"

The Jays are more than a decent-hitting shortstop away from a playoff berth. They're also lacking an everyday left fielder, and unlike at short, there are some very productive, very attainable players available that could fill the hole. Josh Hamilton of the Reds is one of those players. He's young (26), with tons of upside (drafted first overall back in 1999), could be controlled in the long term for relatively cheaply, and would only cost us a reliable young arm to obtain. The biggest question with Hamilton is his health - he had two stints on the DL this season (although one of them was for gastroenteritis, which shouldn't be cause for future concern). That's why we've signed Matt Stairs, who could take over if Hamilton gets hurt, to a one-year deal. This would also allow us to non-tender Reed Johnson, our primary left fielder going into 2008, freeing up around three million for (hopefully) other off-season moves.

Why give up a young pitcher for Hamilton when we already have Reed? Here’s why:

In 298 at-bats last season, Hamilton had a .922 OPS with 19 HRs. Reed put up an OPS of .625 and 2 bombs in only 23 fewer ABs. That's an improvement of almost three hundred points of OPS for a minor defensive downgrade. Moreover, Hamilton is a lefty bat in a line-up drunk on righties, with an OPS of 1.028 against right-handed pitchers. Josh isn't what you would call a threat to steal, but since when did the Jays play small ball?

True, Reed was injured for much of 2007. But even his 2006 numbers, far and away his best, can’t step to Hamilton’s from last year. The only meaningful category that 2006 Reed topped 2007 Hamilton in was OBP (.390 vs. .368). Johnson is far from a lock to put up those kinds of numbers again, and considering that the only other time in his career he’s even approached them was in 2001 with the AA Tennessee Smokies, I’m comfortable proclaiming his breakout year a fluke that he won’t be able to replicate.

If the Jays have any hope of curing their offensive woes, they need a solid leadoff hitter. Rios and Wells both spent time batting first in 2007, but both need to be in the heart of the order. Hill hit there, as well, but went 0-for-18 when leading off, and is more suited to batting seventh or eighth. Hamilton, on the other hand, logged many of his 2007 ABs (107 of 298) from the one-hole, where he complemented an OPS of 1.022, with 7 HRs. By trading for Hamilton, JP could add a legitimate leadoff guy and a regular left fielder for a fraction of what it would cost to re-sign the inferior Reed Johnson. And with rumours of trades involving Rios and Lind floating around, adding some outfield depth might soon become entirely necessary.

Because of his checkered past and injuries, we wouldn’t be paying through the nose for Hamilton, either. He could likely be had for Shawn Marcum, who would put up consistent numbers and log a ton of innings in the AL Central.

With the Bosox on the cusp of acquiring the best pitcher in baseball, the Rays showing signs of life, and the Yankees sure to improve before April, the AL's toughest division is about to get tougher. The Jays need to make moves to keep pace. This could be the first one.